The NFL season is now more than half over, and the playoff picture is starting to come into focus. Teams that are on the bubble need to perform at their best in order to make the postseason, and those that have no chance continue to increase in number. For some of these teams, a decrease in motivation may occur, which can do nothing but harm performance. Still, there are some good games to put your money on this weekend, and for a bettor, these opportunities should be your priority, rather than postseason speculation. Let’s take a look and see which games should be your focus, and how you should approach them.
All lines are from sportsbook.ag.
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
The Bills have a surprisingly good record for this late in the season, plus they are home team this weekend. That would give many teams enough to have an advantage, but the Chiefs are 1.5 point favorites right now. Both teams have the same record at 5-3, but the Chiefs are the stronger team according to the analysts.
Kyle Orton, the new Buffalo QB, has had some great reviews, increasing yards per game since taking over by about 13 per game. This isn’t a huge number, but the wins have been coming more recently since then. He’s had more turnovers, though, which is a downfall. He has more experience, and the team seems to respect him more. The current line doesn’t seem to take this into account, and could present an opportunity for bettors to take advantage of. Team dynamics are important, and Buffalo’s are improving for once. However, C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson will both probably be out for this game, which gives the Chiefs the paper advantage. If Orton keeps improving, this could be a moot point, though. The Chiefs have won 5 of their last 6, and have momentum on their side. This could be a close game, and the 1.5 points is probably placed on the wrong team right now. Definitely one to watch.
Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions
The Dolphins are 5-3 compared to the Lions 6-2, which implies an even matchup. And, if you go by the historical home field advantage of 3 points, that’s exactly what this game looks like. The Lions are currently 3 point favorites and are the home team, which should give the Dolphins a chance to take away a bit from them here. They came off of a huge win last week against the Chargers and have momentum on their side. But this week, wide receiver Calvin Johnson returns to the Lions. He is one of their biggest names and should add a lot of value to the team after missing more than a month. Still, Miami QB Ryan Tannehill has a higher QB Rating than than Detroit’s Matthew Stafford, and this should be enough to give the Dolphins a chance to break into that 3 point differential, even with Johnson at 100 percent health. The Lions already have a good WR in Golden Tate, but Stafford’s rating of 86.5 just isn’t high enough to fully capitalize off of this duo. He has one fewer interception than Tannehill, which isn’t a huge number, but enough to change the course of a game. The Dolphins have a good chance of beating the spread here, even if they’re not home team.