Prop Bets

Place a solo Bet on one TeamProp bets are notoriously difficult to win since there are often several outcomes of a timed event, and this can mean that you can make a lot of losing decisions before you make a winning one. But a losing decision does not necessarily mean that it’s a bad decision. It just means that you didn’t win money that particular time. For example, you might find a bet that wants you to specify what the first drive of an NFL game will result in. You have a few choices here—the possessing team could score a touchdown through a pass or by rushing, there could be a field goal, they could punt the ball down the field to their opponent, or there could be a turnover by fumble or interception. There could even be a safety. So, even with this cursory list, there are seven general things that could happen—how do you find a good bet?
Bet on Props
This is where the math comes in. There’s no need to worry, it’s all really simple math, and you can even find resources out there that will do all the calculations for you. Still, there are a number of things that you will need to do before you can make a successful bet. On their own, each of these steps is pretty simple, but together it can turn out to be a bit more difficult. Here are the three steps simplified for you.

  • Prediction. What do you think will happen? Going back to the above example, look at what is most likely to occur in the game of your choice. Are the Cowboys likely to play aggressively and pass the ball far? Or do they rely more on their short term running game? And if they are playing aggressive ball, what does their accuracy look like? There are a lot of things to consider, even in this single instance. A complete knowledge of the team of your choice plus their opponent will help you out here in a big way.
  • Assign Probabilities. This is where things start to get tricky. Let’s say you think there is a good chance that that a point will be made. How will it happen? Look at your team’s historical references as best as you can. You will soon find that some teams are more prone to go for field goals than others. Let’s say you think there’s a 50/50 shot of what type of offensive scoring will happen.
  • Quantify Your Edge. This is difficult too. If you think there’s a 25 percent chance that a point will be scored and that it’s 50/50 whether it will be by touchdown or field goal, you should be looking for a 12.5 percent chance of occurrence. Sportsbooks generally don’t spell this area out for you, but if something has a 12.5 percent chance of occurring, that means that a fair bet will payout +700 odds. If you find that a casino is paying out +750 for the chances that a touchdown will be made, you have an edge of $50—which is actually a pretty big edge.

Playing for the Super Bowl
If you were to make this bet often enough, and your assigned probabilities were correct, then you will find yourself a long term winner here. It’s all about handicapping correctly and then finding advantages here and there. It won’t happen often, but remember—sportsbooks like Bovada have to juggle hundreds of numbers every day. They will make mistakes on the line, and other bettors will make bad bets. The combination of these two factors means that you can make money on prop bets if you put the research effort into it.