The New England Patriots will be taking on defending champs Seattle Seahawks in this year’s Super Bowl in a game that looks to be tight. Early on in betting for this game, experts declared that it was a pick, and that both teams looked even on paper. Now, just a few days before Sunday, the public has placed a lot of bets, and the line has shifted to show that opinion. It’s possible that lines will change again, but for the moment, the Patriots are 2 point favorites. Depending upon the book you go with, the payout will vary a bit, but it looks like it should be around -105 to -110 for a bet on the Pats to win by more than 2.

If you believe that this game truly is a pick, and that it could go either way, a bet on the Pats to win by 3 or more points is not a good call, even if the payout is set at -105. The downfall is that a bet on the Seahawks will now cost you more at -115, but the chances of having a winning bet are much better. [Read more…]

The NFC and AFC Championships games are two of the most exciting games during the whole NFL season. It’s here that the teams for the Super Bowl will be decided, and there’s a ton of pressure and excitement for these games. Betting on these is very popular, but most people just put money on their favorite teams, and not in the smartest of places. Here’s a little rundown on how to make your money go a little bit further this weekend. Just remember to look at the big picture for long term success.

AFC: Colts at Patriots

The Pats are 7 point favorites here, and the return is even money at some sportsbooks. This is a far superior bet to getting the typical -110 that most others are offering right now. It’s only a $10 difference, but it’s by far the better bet. [Read more…]

The NFL regular season is winding down, and the playoffs are getting close. It’s an exciting time for players and fans, and ramps up the intensity of play. Some teams are out of the hunt right now, others have it pretty much made for them, and others are right on the bubble. The bubble teams are the ones you need to look out for as they will be willing to take risks to get where they want to be. Expect a few surprises this weekend because of this.

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins

No one expected the Dolphins to be good this season, let alone in the hunt for a playoff spot. Yet, here they are, with four games left in the season, tied for second in their Division. Beating the Ravens would be a huge step toward getting to the postseason, and they even find themselves as 3 point favorites here. However, the teams are evenly matched and the 3 points has been given to them just because they are the home team. Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill is having an impressive season, and is currently playing at his best. [Read more…]

How is your football season going? If you’re doing well with your bets so far, congratulations! If you think you can do better, Week 12 of NFL action has some interesting matchups, especially given the fact that the playoffs are coming up quickly. Here are some of the bigger games to focus on this weekend.

Cleveland Browns at Atlanta Falcons

This is one of those games that could honestly go either way, but because the Falcons have homefield, the books have given them a 3 point advantage. The Browns have the better record here, and overall, have had a much stronger looking team than the Falcons. But with the loss of two key defensive players, a lot of people have been betting on the home Falcons, thus driving the line up. Falcons QB Matt Ryan is a great passer, and the depleted defense gives him an edge in this game. For the Browns, QB Brian Hoyer is decent, but well behind Ryan’s ability as his 86.0 rating doesn’t quite hold up to Ryan’s 93.2. Still, Hoyer will have All-Pro receiver Josh Gordon back this week. The Falcons seem to have a slight edge here, but it’s not a 3 point one. That makes the Falcons the mathematically correct play for the overall win, but the Browns the right call if you’re going with the spread. [Read more…]

Week 11 of NFL action is usually about securing playoff spots and keeping star players at their peak. This season is no exception, although there are a few differences from this season when looking at prior seasons. Either way, again, you will find some great betting opportunities this week if you keep your eye open. Let’s look at the games that stand out from the others.

All lines are from sportsbook.ag.

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers

The Panthers have home field advantage, but are currently slated to be the dogs here by 1 point. The interesting thing about this game, though, is that even though both teams have only won 3 games each, they are both trying to get into the playoffs still. That creates an extra layer of excitement for this game, and it should be a given that both will step up their games. The Falcons are the better team, with Matt Ryan being a far superior to Cam Newton at this point in the season. Ryan has a 93.4 QB Rating, while Newton only has an 80.1. Ryan’s completion percentage is also much higher, a bit more than 6 points total. That gives Ryan the edge offensively. Newton is renowned as an athletic quarterback, but that skill is only helpful in the short game. With the Falcon’s defense, they have a clear advantage having given up fewer points per game than the Panthers. The 1 point cushion that the Panthers have will likely be overcome by the Falcons, even if they are on the road.

New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts

This is probably the biggest game of the weekend, and the Colts are 2.5 point favorites according to the books. That’s pretty much only because they have the home field on their side, though. All eyes will be on Andrew Luck for this game as he goes up against future Hall of Famer, Tom Brady. The Patriots are leading their division, but not by much. Winning this game would be huge for them, effectively making the division title a race between them and the Dolphins. The Colts also could use a win here, but they have a pretty secure lead within their division now and do not need a win as badly. Stat-wise, Brady is slightly ahead of Luck with a 103.5 QB Rating compared to Luck’s 100.3. Luck has a better aerial game with more passing yards than Brady this season, but the fact is, Brady has a higher completion rate. The Patriots are a slightly better team, but while away, this could actually go either way. The correct play would be to bet on the Patriots covering their 2.5 points, but this will be an exciting game either way.

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers

There’s no question here that the Packers are the better team, but are they 6 points better as the books believe? Yes, is the only answer that seems right. Aaron Rodgers is by far the best QB out there this season with a 120.1 QB Rating. Compare that to the current starter for the Eagles, Mark Sanchez. His QB Rating is only 97.7, but over the course of a small part of the season. The main starter for the Eagles, Nick Foles, is out with a broken clavicle. Sanchez has potential, but he’s not in the same class as Rodgers. This game goes to the Packers, most likely by much more than the 6 points currently being given.

The NFL season is now more than half over, and the playoff picture is starting to come into focus. Teams that are on the bubble need to perform at their best in order to make the postseason, and those that have no chance continue to increase in number. For some of these teams, a decrease in motivation may occur, which can do nothing but harm performance. Still, there are some good games to put your money on this weekend, and for a bettor, these opportunities should be your priority, rather than postseason speculation. Let’s take a look and see which games should be your focus, and how you should approach them.

All lines are from sportsbook.ag.

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills

The Bills have a surprisingly good record for this late in the season, plus they are home team this weekend. That would give many teams enough to have an advantage, but the Chiefs are 1.5 point favorites right now. Both teams have the same record at 5-3, but the Chiefs are the stronger team according to the analysts. [Read more…]

Get ready for week seven of NFL action! The season has finally settled down, but the excitement is just building up. There are some great games this weekend, and also some ones that present good money making opportunities for astute bettors. These three games are the ones to keep your eyes on and look for a chance to win some cash.

All lines are from sportsbook.ag.

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have the most respect in this game, and they are the home team. But, even with this, they are only 3.5 point favorites. The Bengals have had a great season so far with a 3-1-1 record. Their one loss came at the hands of the Patriots, and they tied the Panthers last weekend. However, they’ve beaten three strong teams, and this created high [Read more…]

Week 6 of NFL action is already here, and that means you need to start studying the matchups to find inefficiencies within the sportsbooks. The good part about having five weeks done already is that there is more information than the week before on which to act upon, but the bad news is, the sportsbooks have that info, too. With that said, here are some of the more interesting games to watch.

All lines are from sportsbook.ag.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns

The Browns have a 2-2 record, and one of their losses was in Week 1 to the Steelers. It would only make sense, then, that the Steelers would be the favorite, but they are not. The Browns are favored by a single point, instead of the 3 points that they lost to them by. A lot of this has to do with the change in homefield, but an even bigger factor is how [Read more…]

Week 5 of the NFL season has a few big matchups to focus on. The NFL always has great games, and early in the season, there is always a lot of upsets and excitement. This week will be no different as some of the matchups look to be quite interesting and entertaining. One way of evaluating future games is to look at past stats, then see how recent developments will affect how those stats extrapolate into the current game. It’s not an exact science, but it helps point your attention in the right direction. Off the field events too, like injury recovery, can also impact future games, so take this into account while making your own decisions.

All odds and lines are from Sportsbook.ag.

Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers

The big names here are Jay Cutler, the quarterback for the Bears, and Cam Newton, the QB for the Panthers. According the the books, the Panthers are the favorite by 2 points. This makes sense given Newton’s better numbers and the homefield advantage. [Read more…]

Week four of the football season is mostly over, and some favorites were upset during this past weekend’s action. The most surprising game was probably the Dallas Cowboys beating the New Orleans Saints in a convincing manner. Dallas is now 3-1, in comparison to the surprising 1-3 that the Saints are at. Drew Brees is having a decent season, four games in, but it seems like the defense is really struggling to find a groove. Even with a great performance Sunday, Brees just didn’t have the rest of his team on board and they lost handily to Tony Romo’s squad. Brees is ranked 3rd in the NFL by QB Rating, and Romo is #12, but Romo obviously has the receivers and defenders that Brees does not have. It will be interesting to see how the experienced Saints progress over the season, but it is clear that they are not feeling it just yet.

The Minnesota Vikings beat the Atlanta Falcons Sunday, too, clearing up the confusion they exuded during the first few weeks of the season. [Read more…]