As the NFL season progresses, the teams that have a better chance of winning the Super Bowl will become more apparent. Yes, sometimes an outside shot will win, but that outside shot still has to make the playoffs to make the Super Bowl, and by that time, their payout might be a lot less than it was preseason. So, if you think a dark horse has a good chance of winning the big game, the best time to bet on them is well before the playoff teams are announced.
Preseason futures on the Super Bowl can have huge payouts, even for strong teams. Even last year’s champion, the Seattle Seahawks, currently have a +600 payout. If you wait until the day before next year’s game, the favorite will definitely not have this good of a payout.
The trick with futures bets like these is to find a team without much popularity now, but has a good chance of making the playoffs. Once a team makes the playoffs, there’s a much higher chance of winning the Super Bowl. With just a few good games, they could go from barely qualifying for the postseason, to being the best team overall. There is a high amount of variance in the NFL, and finding a team with high payouts–and therefore a poor perceived chance of actually winning–before the season begins but has good prospects, should be a high priority. Honestly, there is only a small chance that one of these teams will win. However, there is only a small chance that a favorite, like the Seahawks or Denver Broncos (also currently at +600), will actually win the Super Bowl, as well.
If you’re going to bet on the Super Bowl as a preseason bet, you want to get the most value possible out of the bet. Therefore, finding a team with a good balance between payout and odds of pulling through for you is the best strategy. Luckily, at this point in the year, even a favorite has a higher payout than they should. So, if you think that the Seahawks will repeat, now is the best time to place your bet if you are focused on getting the best price possible.
This is also the time that your vanity bets will have the best payouts. If you are a big Buffalo Bills fan, and you always place a bet on them to win it all during the season, you should place that bet now. Once the season starts, the Bills will either play really poorly or really well, and the bet will change in payout value. However, they have a blank slate right now, and although the chances of them winning might go up or down depending upon their performance, right now, bettors have last season in mind, and this has influenced their price greatly. They are still considered a bottom tier team now at +10,000, but if they have a few really good games early on, you can be certain that a lot of action will be placed on them and their value will go way down.