Super Bowl 49 Predictions

The New England Patriots will be taking on defending champs Seattle Seahawks in this year’s Super Bowl in a game that looks to be tight. Early on in betting for this game, experts declared that it was a pick, and that both teams looked even on paper. Now, just a few days before Sunday, the public has placed a lot of bets, and the line has shifted to show that opinion. It’s possible that lines will change again, but for the moment, the Patriots are 2 point favorites. Depending upon the book you go with, the payout will vary a bit, but it looks like it should be around -105 to -110 for a bet on the Pats to win by more than 2.
Place a Bet on the Super Bowl
If you believe that this game truly is a pick, and that it could go either way, a bet on the Pats to win by 3 or more points is not a good call, even if the payout is set at -105. The downfall is that a bet on the Seahawks will now cost you more at -115, but the chances of having a winning bet are much better.

That is, if the teams are truly equal. The Seahawks did win the Super Bowl last year, and they have the best defense in the NFL this year, and the Patriots’ defense allowed almost 4 points per game more over the regular season. However, New England QB Tom Brady has a better overall QB Ranking than Seattle’s Russell Wilson. This year, Brady had a score of 97.4 while Wilson was at 95.0. It’s a small difference, but it could completely offset the extra points that Seattle’s defense will protect against.

The other point to consider is that the Patriots’ offense was responsible for 29.3 points per game, while the Seahawks managed 24.6. Again, this offsets the superior defense, and when coupled with Brady’s better score, it gives the Patriots a small advantage. Whether it will be three points or more is a tough call, but this seems like a good number to start at.

The Patriots do have an edge here, but it’s probably in the 1 to 3 point area, making a spread bet a decent move only if you can get the -105 number or better. Anything worse than this will probably offset the advantage that New England has. This is why it is often so important to go line shopping before you commit to a book and place your final bet. Otherwise, the money line is the correct choice on the Patriots, but only if you can get a better number than -130. This way, you are limiting risk, improving your chances of having a winning bet, and still placing your money in a spot that has a good chance of making you a profiting.

Also, make sure you look at the over/under. It is at 48 points right now at most books, which is a good estimate. If you look at the points that New England averaged per game with 29.75 and add it to the Seattle average of 24.625, your total is up over 54, and this makes the 48 number seem pretty low. The over bet, assuming you get the standard -110 or better as your price, is the best choice just based upon basic math analysis. It also gives you some wiggle room to account for the Seahawks’ ability to limit the scoring of their opponents.