NFL Week 5 Picks

Week 5 of the NFL season has a few big matchups to focus on. The NFL always has great games, and early in the season, there is always a lot of upsets and excitement. This week will be no different as some of the matchups look to be quite interesting and entertaining. One way of evaluating future games is to look at past stats, then see how recent developments will affect how those stats extrapolate into the current game. It’s not an exact science, but it helps point your attention in the right direction. Off the field events too, like injury recovery, can also impact future games, so take this into account while making your own decisions.

All odds and lines are from

Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers

The big names here are Jay Cutler, the quarterback for the Bears, and Cam Newton, the QB for the Panthers. According the the books, the Panthers are the favorite by 2 points. This makes sense given Newton’s better numbers and the homefield advantage. What it does not take into account is the fact that Newton’s athletic ability is currently limited. He had surgery six months ago, and has not fully recovered. Luckily, he has developed a lot in the NFL, and the running game is not his only weapon. The advantage could probably go either way in this game, and since the Panthers have the deficit to overcome, if you are going to bet on the spread, the Bears are the way to go. The money line is probably something to stay away from.

Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants

Both of these teams are 2-2, but there’s a lot more to this game then the records. Eli Manning has a storied career and at one point, was one of the best QBs in the game, but Matt Ryan is now the one with the better record. His QB Rating is currently 100.3 while Ryan’s is at 93.6. The supporting numbers also back up the Falcons for offensive numbers, too. Julio Jones leads the NFL in yards per game right now. The problem is that Jones is currently limited in his playing ability and may not be available on Sunday. This is why the books have given the Giants a 4.5 point advantage. Victor Cruz, the Giants best offensive weapon, is right behind him, and has more yards per reception. The key for this game, then, is Jones. If he is out or not in top form, the advantage goes to the Giants. If not, the Falcons should have no problem winning.

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts

The Colts are 3.5 point favorites, but the Ravens are also a very strong team this year. Andrew Luck is one of the best QBs in the NFL on many levels right now, and has the youth advantage over the Raven’s Joe Flacco. Luck has a completion rate about 5 percent higher than Flacco’s right now, and Luck has many more attempts. This spells more yards gained for the Colts than the Ravens, and ultimately, a higher score. This should be easily enough to overcome the 3.5 points they need to, and it should also make for one of the most exciting games of the weekend. Definitely one to sit back and watch.