It’s All About Week 12

How is your football season going? If you’re doing well with your bets so far, congratulations! If you think you can do better, Week 12 of NFL action has some interesting matchups, especially given the fact that the playoffs are coming up quickly. Here are some of the bigger games to focus on this weekend.

Cleveland Browns at Atlanta Falcons

This is one of those games that could honestly go either way, but because the Falcons have homefield, the books have given them a 3 point advantage. The Browns have the better record here, and overall, have had a much stronger looking team than the Falcons. But with the loss of two key defensive players, a lot of people have been betting on the home Falcons, thus driving the line up. Falcons QB Matt Ryan is a great passer, and the depleted defense gives him an edge in this game. For the Browns, QB Brian Hoyer is decent, but well behind Ryan’s ability as his 86.0 rating doesn’t quite hold up to Ryan’s 93.2. Still, Hoyer will have All-Pro receiver Josh Gordon back this week. The Falcons seem to have a slight edge here, but it’s not a 3 point one. That makes the Falcons the mathematically correct play for the overall win, but the Browns the right call if you’re going with the spread.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts

This is the Colts game, but the money line isn’t worth betting on at all. To profit $100, you would need to risk $1,100, completely negating any sort of value that this bet would have. However, the spread is a different story. The Colts are 14 point favorites, and while this is completely within the realm of possibility, victories of more than 14 points mean exactly the same thing as a victory of less than 14 points. A win is a win in the record books, and there is no incentive for the Colts to drive the score up. In other words, a small bet on the Jaguars to cover seems to be the right play here, as backward as that might sound at first. Instead of just ignoring this game as you might be tempted to, looking at how the bets are structured by the book you use is a better idea if you can find an inefficiency within the spread.

Detroit Lions at New England Patriots

The Patriots are 7 point favorites in this game. They have the homefield advantage, the better quarterback, and the slightly better record. However, Tom Brady has a 102.0 QB Rating compared to Matthew Stafford’s 85.0. There’s little question that the Pats are the better team for this game, but will they win by more than 7 points, or even win at all? The Lions are only a game behind the Patriots record wise, which indicates that they are both strong teams. The Lions have even beaten the strong Green Bay Packers this season. Given the current situations of both teams, the Patriots look like they almost have a playoff spot secured, while the Lions are still fighting for one. The Lions need to be at 100 percent to win this game, but they have the motivation on their side. The Lions actually stand a far better chance in this game than the odds reveal. They have a decent shot of covering the spread, or of even winning outright.

Speak Your Mind