Conference Championship Finish

The NFC and AFC Championships games are two of the most exciting games during the whole NFL season. It’s here that the teams for the Super Bowl will be decided, and there’s a ton of pressure and excitement for these games. Betting on these is very popular, but most people just put money on their favorite teams, and not in the smartest of places. Here’s a little rundown on how to make your money go a little bit further this weekend. Just remember to look at the big picture for long term success.
Make the Right Bet

AFC: Colts at Patriots

The Pats are 7 point favorites here, and the return is even money at some sportsbooks. This is a far superior bet to getting the typical -110 that most others are offering right now. It’s only a $10 difference, but it’s by far the better bet. Would you rather risk $100 and get a $100 return if you’re right and the Patriots win by more than 7? Or, would you rather risk $110 for the same return? Basic math says that over time, the lower risk with equal reward will pay handsomely. And that’s really how you need to approach any bet; on the long term scale. You might win or lose on the short term, but given a big enough sample size, you want to have a long term winning strategy.

What about the moneyline here? New England is the correct choice, but you would have to risk $260 to profit just $100. There’s a good chance that you’ll win, but it’s a lot of risk with little reward, and for most people, this is not a worthwhile move at all. Colts QB Andrew Luck is not as experienced as Brady, but he has a ton of raw talent, great numbers this year, and the pressure might bring out an unknown quality in him. It will be an exciting game to watch, either way.

NFC: Packers at Seahawks

Seahawks are 7.5 point favorites, but even though the matchup here is almost exactly the same result-wise as it is for the AFC game, the payout is different. A bet on the Seahawks to cover the spread, for example, would only return $100 by risking $105 with most books. This is not a good bet in comparison to the favorite for the AFC game for two reasons. 1.) There’s 5 percent more risk for equal rewards, and 2.) the Packers are a better team than the Colts on paper, while the Seahawks are worse than the Patriots. In other words, the Packers stand a better chance of losing by 7 or fewer points than the Colts have of losing by 6 or fewer points. There is potential for this game, though, for bettors. If you want to bet on the NFC game, looking to the underdog is best, even if the risk is -115. However, it’s probably a more profitable move to go with the moneyline here. A $100 bet will return $250 profit for you. And even though the Seahawks have a big advantage here, on a good day, there’s a better chance of the Packers winning. The extra payout makes the extra risk much more worthwhile than any other choice on this particular game. This sort of thing doesn’t happen often much in NFL betting, especially in a Championship game, which makes this a unique opportunity.