A Look into Week Six of the NFL

Week 6 of NFL action is already here, and that means you need to start studying the matchups to find inefficiencies within the sportsbooks. The good part about having five weeks done already is that there is more information than the week before on which to act upon, but the bad news is, the sportsbooks have that info, too. With that said, here are some of the more interesting games to watch.

All lines are from sportsbook.ag.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns

The Browns have a 2-2 record, and one of their losses was in Week 1 to the Steelers. It would only make sense, then, that the Steelers would be the favorite, but they are not. The Browns are favored by a single point, instead of the 3 points that they lost to them by. A lot of this has to do with the change in homefield, but an even bigger factor is how the Browns have been performing in their other games since then. Browns quarterback Brian Hoyer is ranked well behind the Steelers’ Ben Roethlisberger, but a big reason for this is the fact that Hoyer has played fewer games. If you look at QB Ratings, you will see a more accurate picture, where Hoyer is only 2.5 points behind. Home field advantage is historically worth about 3 points, which would make the Steelers and Browns about even, but the Browns have outperformed them the whole season beyond Week 1. The 1 point should be overcome by the Browns.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

This should be a great game. The Patriots are 3 point favorites, but have been having problems all season. The Bills, on the other hand, are under new ownership now, and have the home field. The Bills have a more cohesive team this year than the Pats, despite the superior numbers coming out of New England, The Pats have the advantage here, but this is a game ripe for an upset. If you are looking for a nail biter, this is going to be a good game to watch, and an even better one to take advantage of the spread and grab a profit on. EJ Manuel’s numbers are also not that far behind Tom Brady’s too, which is a big surprise at this point in the season.

Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks should win this game with ease, but can they win by the 8.5 points that the books have given them to overcome? Russell Wilson is the number 3 QB in the NFL right now, and Dallas’ Tony Romo is number 8. But the rest of the teams have an even bigger gap between them. Dez Bryant is having a decent season with Dallas, but the Seahawks have a stronger defense, and should be able to take care of him. Some of the numbers don’t reveal this because the Seahawks have had their by-week already and the Cowboys haven’t, but the Seahawks have the results on their side. They are ranked number 5 in the NFL with their defense, while the Cowboys are only at number 21. And even though the Cowboys have the number 5 overall offense, the Seahawks are not far behind at 12. The difference here gives the Seahawks an edge, but it doesn’t seem like it should be 8.5 until you factor in the home field. It will still be close, either way. The Seahawks should win, but it will most likely be by 3 to 8 points, and probably not more. This makes them a good money line bet, and not a great spread choice.